Full Climate
Impact Assessment

System of use and delivery on human needs: Housing

At the system level, building construction is in focus as one possible final use of the extracted wood, where Creative Optimisation is assumed to influence construction methods from 10% of the wood extracted for a 1.5 °C compatible scenario. Different types of residential building construction are compared for their lifecycle CO₂e emissions, specifically concrete frame, steel frame, wooden frame, and mass timber frame buildings, in which the amount of wood content is known. A doubling of the building lifetime is also assumed possible through smart design and maintenance solutions. The current proportion of construction types in Sweden is used as a base case for 2024, with an increase in wood constructions, including mass timber buildings assumed for the 2030 and 2100 scenarios.

In the counter factual / innovation case, an overall stronger growth in wooden buildings is assumed for a 1.5 °C compatible scenario, however no mass timber buildings are included due to the associated increase in land use, and all buildings are assumed to have a doubled lifetime. Under this scenario, avoided emission are approximately 2.5 MtCO₂e per year in 2030, and 50 k hectares of land use per year are avoided due to the overall reduction in wood used in construction due to the extended lifetime, however it can be noted that such a scenario would lead to a significant use of global forestry resources if these building methods, including the amount of floor space per person, would be applied to 11 billion people.

Impact on human needs and flourishing lives

Of the houses that are constructed at the System level due to Creative Optimisation’s influence, the number of people housed is calculated. Of these people housed in more sustainable housing, Creative Optimisation is assumed to also influence 1% of their lifestyles leading to more flourishing lives, with a shift from a Western average lifestyle to a EU average lifestyle for the majority, and more sustainable lifestyles for a smaller subset, leading to avoided emissions of 14 MtCO₂e per year in 2030.

Influencing society, it’s values and structures

Product feedback can either lead to greater support for wood products that are more sustainable, or lead to an increased pressure on finite resources. There is a potential to encourage sustainable uses of wood, to store carbon in longer-life products and enable circular wood product chains that substitute higher emission products. This may accelerate bio based, half-earth compatible solutions with smart resource tracking.

Infrastructure feedback can either lead to the accelerated use of wood products where a lot is additional, putting pressure on more sensitive areas are used for wood, or lead to 1.5 °C and half-earth compatible infrastructure based in longer lifecycles with circular/multiple use of wood through smart resource tracking.

Institutional feedback can either focus on developing available markets without advocacy for system change, or Creative Optimisation can become a leading stakeholder in support of flourishing lives through public support for LED pathways and half-earth compatible use of wood, with circular solutions.