Full Climate
Impact Assessment

System of use and delivery on human needs: Housing

At the system level, building construction is in focus as one possible final use of the wood products, where OrganoWood is assumed to influence construction methods from 5 times as many houses as its products can be used to build, due to partnerships and clusters, however only 2% of the resultant avoided emissions are attributed to OrganoWood. Different types of residential building construction are compared for their lifecycle CO₂e emissions, specifically concrete frame, steel frame, wooden frame, and mass timber frame buildings, in which the amount of wood content is known. A circular use of building materials is also assumed possible, as well as smart design and maintenance leading to a doubling of the lifetime of the buildings, and a decrease in the floor space per person. The current proportion of construction types in Sweden is used as a base case for 2024, with an increase in wood constructions, including mass timber buildings assumed for the 2024, 2030 and 2100 scenarios.

In the counter factual / innovation case, a growth in mass timber buildings is assumed for a 1.5 °C compatible scenario, which include the use of circular building materials and circularity in society from recovered wood, a doubling of the building lifetime, and reduced floor space per person. Under this scenario, avoided emissions are approximately 0.2 MtCO₂e per year in 2030, and 6 k hectares of land use per year are avoided due to the overall reduction in wood used in construction due to the extended lifetime.

Impact on human needs and flourishing lives

Of the houses that are constructed at the System level due to OrganoWoods influence, the number of people housed is used to estimate the number of people who are inspired/enabled by OrganoWood. Of these people, OrganoWood is assumed to influence 1% of their lifestyles leading to more flourishing lives, with a shift from a Western average lifestyle to a EU average lifestyle for the majority, and more sustainable lifestyles for a smaller subset, leading to avoided emissions of approximately 3 MtCO₂e per year in 2030.

Influencing society, it’s values and structures

Product feedback can either lead to greater support for wood products that are more sustainable, or lead to an increased pressure on finite resources. There is a potential to encourage sustainable uses of wood, to store carbon in longer-life products and enable circular wood product chains that substitute higher emission products. This may accelerate bio based, half-earth compatible solutions with a focus on circularity.

Infrastructure feedback can either lead to the accelerated use of wood products where a lot is additional, putting pressure on more sensitive areas are used for wood, or lead to 1.5 °C and half-earth compatible infrastructure based on longer lifecycles with circular/multiple uses.

Institutional feedback can either focus on developing available markets without advocacy for system change, or OrganoWood can become a leading stakeholder in support of flourishing lives through public support for LED pathways and half-earth compatible use of wood, using circular solutions.